Reconstructing Somalia's population: A district level analysis

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Population studies
• Geographic information systems

Background:

• Somalia faces protracted armed conflict, drought, and food insecurity, driving significant population displacement.
• No national census since 1975 hinders accurate population data for planning.
• Previous population reconstruction models had limitations in dynamic displacement patterns.

Purpose of the Study:

• To reconstruct Somalia's population at the district level (administrative level 2) from 2013 to 2024.
• To improve upon previous population estimation methods by incorporating dynamic modeling.
• To provide a more accurate demographic baseline for planning and service delivery.

Main Methods:

• Utilized mechanistic and statistical models for population reconstruction.
• Incorporated alternative population data sources, natural growth rates, and displacement flows.
• Applied probabilistic models for the return of internally displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees.

Main Results:

• Revised population estimates reveal significant underestimations in certain districts by previous models.
• The new model provides a more balanced population distribution, reducing unrealistic figures.
• Districts previously considered depopulated show viable population levels, reflecting dynamic displacement.

Conclusions:

• The improved population reconstruction offers a more accurate representation of Somalia's demographic dynamics.
• Dynamic modeling and updated data sources enhance reliability for planning and service delivery.
• This study provides essential insights into the impact of conflict and climate-induced displacement on population distribution.