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Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Population studies
  • Geographic information systems

Background:

  • Somalia faces protracted armed conflict, drought, and food insecurity, driving significant population displacement.
  • No national census since 1975 hinders accurate population data for planning.
  • Previous population reconstruction models had limitations in dynamic displacement patterns.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To reconstruct Somalia's population at the district level (administrative level 2) from 2013 to 2024.
  • To improve upon previous population estimation methods by incorporating dynamic modeling.
  • To provide a more accurate demographic baseline for planning and service delivery.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized mechanistic and statistical models for population reconstruction.
  • Incorporated alternative population data sources, natural growth rates, and displacement flows.
  • Applied probabilistic models for the return of internally displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees.

Main Results:

  • Revised population estimates reveal significant underestimations in certain districts by previous models.
  • The new model provides a more balanced population distribution, reducing unrealistic figures.
  • Districts previously considered depopulated show viable population levels, reflecting dynamic displacement.

Conclusions:

  • The improved population reconstruction offers a more accurate representation of Somalia's demographic dynamics.
  • Dynamic modeling and updated data sources enhance reliability for planning and service delivery.
  • This study provides essential insights into the impact of conflict and climate-induced displacement on population distribution.