Instability in the geological regulation of Earth's climate

Negative feedback between climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), mediated by the weathering of silicate minerals on land, is thought to provide the primary regulation of Earth's climate on geological timescales. By contrast, we found that faster feedbacks involving organic matter are not only critical to Earth system recovery but can also create unexpected instability. Our Earth system model experiments show how sedimentary organic carbon burial, amplified by redox-sensitive phosphorus regeneration, can outweigh silicate weathering and paradoxically drive climate overcooling in response to massive CO₂ release. This instability depends on the initial balance between silicate weathering and organic carbon burial in addition to the state of global phosphorus cycling. It is most strongly expressed at intermediate ocean redox states, which may help us understand the timing of past ice ages.