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Modeling gonorrhea and HIV coinfection with predictive analytics for disability and mortality risks
Yasir Ramzan1,2, Kamel Guedri3, Aziz Ullah Awan2,4
1Department of Mathematics, Shanghai University, 99 Shangda Road, Shanghai, 200444, China.
Scientific Reports
|September 26, 2025
Summary
This study models gonorrhea and HIV coinfection, including disability and mortality. Findings emphasize early diagnosis and prevention to mitigate long-term health impacts from these sexually transmitted infections.
Area of Science:
- Mathematical Epidemiology
- Public Health Modeling
- Infectious Disease Dynamics
Background:
- Coinfection with gonorrhea and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) presents complex health challenges.
- Understanding the interplay of these infections, disability, and mortality is crucial for effective public health strategies.
- Existing models may not fully capture the long-term sequelae, including neurological and reproductive disabilities.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and analyze a mathematical model for gonorrhea and HIV coinfection dynamics.
- To incorporate disability and mortality risks associated with both infections.
- To estimate the contribution of each infection to long-term disabilities and evaluate prevention strategies.
Main Methods:
- Model development and analysis of solution properties (boundedness, positivity, uniqueness, existence).
- Calculation of the basic reproduction number (R0) using the next-generation matrix.
- Stability analysis of equilibrium states (Gonorrhea-Free and Gonorrhea-Present) using Lyapunov functions and graph-theoretic approaches.
- Sensitivity analysis to identify key transmission parameters.
- Numerical simulations using the Adams Bashforth predictor-corrector scheme, considering fractional order effects.
Main Results:
- The model's mathematical properties were rigorously investigated, and equilibrium states were analyzed for stability.
- Sensitivity analysis identified critical parameters influencing disease transmission and R0.
- Simulation results illustrate how modifying disease-related factors alters the course of disabilities and mortality.
Conclusions:
- The developed model provides insights into the complex dynamics of gonorrhea and HIV coinfection, including disability and mortality.
- Early diagnosis and targeted disability prevention efforts are highlighted as essential interventions.
- The model's findings underscore the importance of addressing both infectious and long-term health consequences.
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