Fault Recovery Strategy with Net Load Forecasting Using Bayesian Optimized LSTM for Distribution Networks

To address the impact of distributed energy resource volatility on distribution network fault restoration, this paper proposes a strategy that incorporates net load forecasting. A Bayesian-optimized long short-term memory neural network is used to accurately predict the net load within fault-affected areas, achieving an R² of 0.9569 and an RMSE of 12.15 kW. Based on the forecasting results, a fast restoration optimization model is established, with objectives to maximize critical load recovery, minimize switching operations, and reduce network losses. The model is solved using a genetic algorithm enhanced with quantum particle swarm optimization (GA-QPSO), a hybrid metaheuristic known for its superior global exploration and local refinement capabilities. GA-QPSO has been successfully applied in various power system optimization problems, including service restoration, network reconfiguration, and distributed generation planning, owing to its effectiveness in navigating large, complex solution spaces. Simulation results on the IEEE 33-bus system show that the proposed method reduces network losses by 33.2%, extends the power supply duration from 60 to 120 min, and improves load recovery from 72.7% to 75.8%, demonstrating enhanced accuracy and efficiency of the restoration process.