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Application of the Three-Group Model to the 2024 US Elections
Miron Kaufman1, Sanda Kaufman2, Hung T Diep3
1Department of Physics, Cleveland State University, Cleveland, OH 44115, USA.
Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)
|September 27, 2025
Summary
Reducing political polarization may benefit the largest voting bloc in the upcoming US elections. This study models complex systems to explore polarization
Area of Science:
- Social physics
- Political science
- Computational social science
Background:
- Political polarization has intensified in Western democracies, leading to adverse social outcomes.
- The complexity and dynamic nature of social systems complicate research into polarization's causes, effects, and mitigation strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To utilize social physics models to anticipate potential outcomes of the 2024 US elections.
- To explore the impact of political polarization and depolarization on voting patterns.
- To investigate methods for reducing polarization and their potential influence on election results.
Main Methods:
- Application of dynamic modeling based on social physics principles to complex social systems.
- Generation of time-series scenarios for average group stances of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents.
- Analysis of polarization and depolarization effects on simulated 2024 US election outcomes.
Main Results:
- The study indicates that reducing political polarization could favor the largest voting group.
- Modeling suggests specific strategies for depolarization may alter election results.
Conclusions:
- The findings highlight the significant risks associated with increasing political polarization trends.
- The research underscores the potential for societal intervention to alter detrimental polarization trajectories and influence election outcomes.
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