Development of Nomograms to Predict the Probability of Recurrence at Specific Sites in Patients with Cutaneous...

Risk assessment models are increasingly being used in oncology to improve therapeutic and follow-up decisions for individual patients.

In our study, we used a university hospital registry database containing data on patients diagnosed with invasive cutaneous melanoma between 2000 and 2019 (training cohort: N = 1402; validation cohort: N = 601). Using multivariate Cox regression models, we identified clinicopathological variables that are independent risk factors for melanoma recurrence at specific sites. We then constructed nomograms to predict the probability of recurrence at 3, 5, and 10 years.

Age, sex, primary tumor location, histological subtype, Clark invasion level and AJCC pT category were independent prognostic factors for melanoma recurrence in regional lymph nodes. Age, sex, primary tumor location, Clark level of invasion, AJCC pT stage and regional lymph node metastasis were risk factors for skin/soft tissue (including muscle)/non-regional lymph node metastases. We found that AJCC pT category and sex were also independent prognostic factors for melanoma recurrence in the lung, visceral sites, and brain. Furthermore, the nomogram predicting recurrence in the lung and visceral sites incorporated the presence of regional lymph node and skin/soft tissue/non-regional lymph node metastases. ROC curves showed good performance of the nomograms in both the training and validation cohorts. The calibration curve showed a good fit.

Our results support the high prognostic value of AJCC pT stage and patient sex, which remained consistent across all melanoma stages, and demonstrate the feasibility of creating nomogram models to predict recurrence risk in melanoma patients.