Multicriteria Decision Analysis as a Tool for Assessing Vector-Borne Diseases Risk: The Case of Crimean-Congo...

Understanding the risk factors for vector-borne diseases, such as Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF), is critical for effective public health strategies. This study aims to identify and map the environmental and climatic determinants influencing the distribution of Hyalomma marginatum, the primary vector of CCHF, in Türkiye, using a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approach. A rapid literature review was conducted to identify environmental, climatic, and methodological criteria used in MCDA studies on vector-borne diseases. Semi-structured interviews with local experts from Armenia, Serbia, and Türkiye provided fine-scale data on vector presence. These criteria were analyzed using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and combined with Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) within the MCDA framework to produce risk maps for H. marginatum occurrence in Türkiye. Key environmental and climatic factors influencing H. marginatum distribution, such as temperature, humidity, vegetation, and precipitation, were identified. The MCDA analysis highlighted high-risk regions in Türkiye with elevated suitability for the vector, correlating with areas of human CCHF cases. MCDA risk maps are valuable tools for public health officials, enabling targeted surveillance and interventions. By integrating diverse environmental and climatic variables, this study enhances the understanding of CCHF dynamics and supports the development of focused control strategies.