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Simulating The Spread Of Foot-and-mouth Disease In Densely Populated Areas As Part Of Contingency Plans To Establish The Best Control Options.

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Simulating The Spread Of Foot-and-mouth Disease In Densely Populated Areas As Part Of Contingency Plans To Establish The Best Control Options.

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Simulating the Spread of Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Densely Populated Areas as Part of Contingency Plans to Establish

Silvia Bellini¹, Alessandra Scaburri¹, Marco Tironi¹

¹Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale della Lombardia ed Emilia-Romagna, Via A. Bianchi 9, 25124 Brescia, Italy.

Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland)

|September 27, 2025

View abstract on PubMed

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) control in Italy requires managing densely populated livestock areas. A risk-based approach effectively identifies key transmission farms, crucial for emergency preparedness and sustainable livestock production.

Keywords:

DPLAs FMD contingency plan densely populated livestock areas disease control foot-and-mouth disease preparedness

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Area of Science:

Veterinary epidemiology
Disease modeling
Livestock management

Background:

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious livestock disease impacting trade and farming.
European Union legislation mandates peacetime emergency preparedness for FMD control.
Densely populated livestock areas (DPLAs) present unique challenges for disease containment.

Purpose of the Study:

To evaluate FMD control strategies in Italian DPLAs using a dynamic transmission model.
To determine a sustainable threshold for farm density compatible with FMD control.
To develop and test an effective risk-based approach for FMDV transmission control.

Main Methods:

Development of a dynamic transmission model for FMDV.
Simulation of reduced farm density to identify critical thresholds.
Application of an original risk-based strategy to pinpoint high-risk farms for FMDV spread.

Main Results:

Identification of a threshold farm density crucial for effective FMD control in the study area.
Demonstration that a risk-based approach is more effective than general density reduction alone.
Validation of the risk-based approach for practical FMDV transmission control in DPLAs.

Conclusions:

Reducing farm density in DPLAs is important but may not be sufficient for FMD control.
A targeted, risk-based strategy is the most effective method for controlling FMDV spread in high-density areas.
The proposed risk-based approach offers a practical solution for FMD emergency preparedness with limited contact data.