Nomogram for predicting the occurrence of progressive ischemic stroke: a single-center retrospective study

Area of Science:

• Neurology
• Cardiovascular Research
• Medical Diagnostics

Background:

• Progressive ischemic stroke (PIS) is a severe complication following acute ischemic stroke (AIS).
• Predictive clinical factors for PIS are not well understood.
• Accurate prediction of PIS is crucial for timely intervention and improved patient outcomes.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a predictive nomogram for identifying patients at high risk of PIS after AIS.
• To provide a practical tool for neurologists to assess PIS risk.
• To enhance clinical decision-making in the management of AIS patients.

Main Methods:

• Retrospective analysis of clinical data from AIS patients who developed PIS.
• Identification of risk factors using univariate and multivariate logistic regression.
• Construction and validation of a nomogram using R software.

Main Results:

• 14.31% of 580 AIS patients developed PIS within 14 days.
• Four independent risk factors for PIS were identified.
• The nomogram demonstrated strong predictive performance (AUCs of 0.849 and 0.829) with good calibration and clinical utility.

Conclusions:

• The developed nomogram effectively enhances the prediction of PIS risk in AIS patients.
• This tool can support neurologists in making informed and timely clinical decisions.
• Further implementation of this nomogram may improve the management of AIS and reduce PIS incidence.