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Can Baseline Recruit Characteristics Predict Actual Injuries Sustained During New Zealand Army Basic Training?
Narelle Hall1, Suzanne Kuys1, Mark Brown1
1School of Allied Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Australian Catholic University, Banyo, QLD 4014, Australia.
Military Medicine
|September 27, 2025
Summary
New Zealand Army recruits who do not pass the 2.4 km run or have poor Y Balance Test scores are at higher risk for lower limb injuries during basic training. Physical performance screening can identify these at-risk individuals for injury prevention.
Area of Science:
- Military Medicine
- Sports Medicine
- Injury Prevention
Background:
- Army recruits face heightened injury risks during basic training.
- Identifying pre-training risk factors for lower limb injuries in New Zealand Army recruits is crucial.
- This study explored personal, lifestyle, and physical performance predictors of injury.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate if baseline characteristics predict lower limb injuries in New Zealand Army recruits.
- To identify specific physical performance metrics associated with injury risk.
- To inform injury mitigation strategies for military training programs.
Main Methods:
- Collected baseline data on personal (age, BMI, sex), lifestyle (smoking, prior injury), and physical performance (2.4 km run, weight-bearing lunge test, Y Balance Test).
- Utilized backwards stepwise logistic regression to identify predictive variables for lower limb injuries.
- Set significance level at 0.10 for statistical analysis.
Main Results:
- 202 recruits (81.5%) were analyzed; 114 sustained injuries, 88 did not.
- Passing the 2.4 km timed run and Y Balance Test posterolateral reach (right limb) were associated with lower injury risk.
- The predictive model achieved 60.9% accuracy in classifying injured and non-injured recruits.
Conclusions:
- Not passing the entry 2.4 km timed run and a low right posterolateral Y Balance Test score predict lower limb injury risk in recruits.
- Physical performance screening at entry can identify high-risk individuals.
- Implementing targeted mitigation measures can potentially reduce future injury rates.

