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Updated: Jan 16, 2026

A Machine Learning Approach to Design an Efficient Selective Screening of Mild Cognitive Impairment
Published on: January 11, 2020
Five-Year Trajectory of Mild Cognitive Impairment: Insights from a Primary Care Memory Clinic
Linda Lee1, Aaron Jones2, Tejal Patel3
1Department of Family Medicine, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada and Centre for Family Medicine Family Health Team, Kitchener, ON, Canada.
Background:
The trajectory of Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) to dementia within primary care is not well understood.
Objective:
We investigated the 5-year trajectory of patients initially diagnosed with MCI, evaluated their risk of developing dementia considering age, sex, and Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) test scores and determined the annual conversion rate from MCI to dementia for patients assessed in a MINT (Multispecialty Interprofessional Team) memory clinic.
Methods:
We conducted a longitudinal cohort study using a retrospective chart review of 751 patients assessed within a MINT memory clinic in Ontario, Canada. The conversion rate from MCI to dementia was estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox regression examined time to dementia diagnosis and the association between baseline MoCA scores and dementia risk.
Findings:
The observed 5-year conversion rate from MCI to dementia was 28.0%, though with limited follow-up data. Accounting for missing data, the estimated 5-year conversion rate was 48.8% (39.5%, 59.2%) with an average annual rate of 9.8%. Each one-point increase in MoCA score at initial visit was associated with a 10% lower rate of conversion to dementia (aHR: 0.90, 95%CI: 0.85-0.96).
Discussion:
Findings highlight the profile of patients assessed in MINT clinics, cognitive trajectory of those diagnosed with MCI, and the importance of primary care-based memory clinics in early detection and intervention.
Insights
The 5-year risk of Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) progressing to dementia is estimated at 48.8%, with higher Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) scores indicating a lower risk. Primary care memory clinics aid early detection.
Area of Science:
- Neurology
- Gerontology
- Primary Care Medicine
Background:
- The progression of Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) to dementia in primary care settings remains poorly understood.
- Early identification and intervention are crucial for managing cognitive decline.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the 5-year trajectory of patients diagnosed with MCI.
- To assess dementia risk factors including age, sex, and Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) scores.
- To determine the annual conversion rate from MCI to dementia in a memory clinic setting.
Main Methods:
- A longitudinal cohort study involving a retrospective chart review of 751 patients.
- Utilized Kaplan-Meier method for conversion rate estimation.
- Employed Cox regression to analyze time to dementia and MoCA score association.
Main Results:
- The estimated 5-year conversion rate from MCI to dementia was 48.8%, with an average annual rate of 9.8%.
- A one-point increase in baseline MoCA score was linked to a 10% reduced risk of dementia conversion.
- Observed 5-year conversion rate was 28.0% with limited follow-up data.
Conclusions:
- Highlights the characteristics of patients seen in Multispecialty Interprofessional Team (MINT) memory clinics.
- Provides insights into the cognitive trajectory of individuals with MCI.
- Underscores the significance of primary care-based memory clinics for early detection and intervention.
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