Climate change and antimicrobial resistance: a global-scale analysis

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Public Health
• Microbiology

Background:

• Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a critical global health challenge.
• Previous research on climate change and AMR was regional and lacked extreme event analysis.

Purpose of the Study:

• To conduct a comprehensive global analysis of the relationship between climate change, including extreme events, and AMR.
• To investigate the impact of temperature and precipitation on resistance rates across common bacterial pathogens.

Main Methods:

• Global analysis of over 28 million bacterial isolates (2000-2023) across eight pathogens and 14 antibiotic categories.
• Utilized climate data from NOAA and resistance data from ResistanceMap, ECDC, and PLISA.
• Employed linear mixed-effects models (LMMs) to assess climate-AMR associations.

Main Results:

• Consistent positive correlation between rising temperatures and AMR rates across most bacterial species.
• Extreme heat indicators showed significant positive associations with AMR, while cold-related indices showed negative correlations.
• Precipitation's impact was complex; only CDD showed a significant positive association with aggregated AMR, with varying effects across different pathogens.

Conclusions:

• Rising temperatures and extreme heat are confirmed global drivers of AMR.
• Precipitation's influence on AMR is complex and pathogen-specific.
• Climate-informed public health strategies integrating climate surveillance are essential for combating intertwined AMR and climate threats.