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Cardiovascular Risk Trajectories and Risk of Developing Stroke and Dementia: A Community-Based Cohort Study in Taiwan
Pei-Chun Chen1,2, Ta-Chen Su3,4,5, Yun-Yu Chen6,7
1National Center for Geriatrics and Welfare Research, National Health Research Institutes, Yunlin, Taiwan.
Neurology
|September 30, 2025
Summary
Accelerated increase in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk over time significantly elevates the risk of stroke and vascular dementia. Monitoring long-term CVD risk trajectories is crucial for predicting neurological outcomes.
Area of Science:
- Neurology
- Cardiology
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Stroke and dementia share cardiovascular risk factors.
- Longitudinal changes in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk may better reflect cumulative vascular burden than static scores.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the association between longitudinal CVD risk trajectories and the risk of developing stroke and dementia.
Main Methods:
- Prospective cohort study of 2,335 Taiwanese adults (≥35 years) without prior stroke or dementia.
- Assessed CVD risk using Framingham function at baseline and 3 follow-ups (1990-2000).
- Modeled CVD risk trajectories and linked to national health data for incident stroke/dementia ascertainment.
Main Results:
- Over 21 years, an accelerated CVD risk trajectory (29.2% of participants) was linked to increased risk of all stroke types and vascular dementia.
- Compared to stable CVD risk, accelerated increase showed HRs of 1.81 for all stroke and 2.07 for vascular dementia.
- Higher baseline CVD risk correlated with stroke risk, but less strongly with vascular dementia.
Conclusions:
- Accelerated CVD risk trajectories are associated with elevated risks of stroke and vascular dementia.
- Longitudinal CVD risk patterns may influence vascular dementia risk independently of baseline risk levels.
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