The reliability of satellite precipitation estimates during tropical cyclone Shaheen

Climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events worldwide, amplifying the global need for reliable weather prediction. Cyclones and flash floods pose serious threats to human life and infrastructure, with advance forecasts and flash flood guidance provided by numerical weather models for disaster mitigation. These models depend on data from satellites and/or ground instruments. In the greater part of the world, less industrialized countries rely widely on the free ubiquitous satellite data, amid limited availability of rain gauges and radars. Assessing the reliability of satellite data during an extreme event in diverse geographic regions is therefore vital. Here we present the assessment of satellite rainfall estimates during tropical cyclone Shaheen, which hit the Arabian Sea and the Arabian Peninsula, in particular, Oman, where flash flood prediction is highly dependent on the MWGHE satellite estimator. We show that satellite data overestimate gauge cumulative precipitation, with daily totals showing a consistent positive bias. Six-hourly analysis reveals fluctuations, with overestimation varying by intensity and timing. Comparisons with UAE radar observations further highlight these discrepancies, particularly in the spatial distribution and intensity of precipitation. Our study underscores the need for a full range of products and/or enhancements of current satellite estimators.