Air pollution and fertility potential: evidence from employed women in China

Under the dual context of China's universal two-child policy implementation and sustained fertility decline, investigating the underlying causes of fertility intention-behavior discrepancies among employed women has become pivotal for policy optimization. However, environmental determinants, particularly air pollution impacts on fertility potential in developing countries, remain understudied. This study addresses the theoretical and practical implications of air pollution effects on employed women's fertility potential in China.

We integrated city-level air pollution data with the 2016 China Labor-force Dynamics Survey (CLDS) dataset. Probit regression models coupled with instrumental variable approaches were employed to rigorously assess air pollution impacts on fertility potential. Heterogeneity analyses were conducted across income brackets, childbearing age groups, educational attainment levels, and nation. Mediation analysis further elucidated the mechanistic pathways.

Elevated PM_2.5 exposure demonstrated significant inhibitory effects, with each 10 µg/m³ increase corresponding to 12% reduction in fertility potential (95% CI: 6.9-17.5%). Heterogeneity analysis showed that the negative effect of air pollution on the fertility potential of working women at the optimal childbearing age (20-30 years old), high education level (above high school) and Han nationality was significantly greater. Three mediating pathways were identified: physical health deterioration, mental health impairment, and increased healthcare expenditure burden.

The adverse impact of air pollution on the fertility potential of working women in China cannot be ignored. This study not only reveals the profound impact of environmental pollution on population health but also provides new evidence for understanding the environmental drivers of fertility decisions. To mitigate this issue, the government and society should take proactive and effective measures to improve air quality, such as strengthening environmental regulation, promoting clean energy, and raising public awareness of environmental protection.