Regional carbon emission reduction potential estimation based on scenario analysis under emission standards
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Published on: June 12, 2016
Xuwei Xia1, Zhibin Yan2, Shuang Zhang1
1State Grid Ningxia Electric Power Co., Ltd., Technical Research Institute, Yinchuan, 750002, Ningxia, China.
Abstract:
The estimation of carbon emission reduction potential in existing regions often faces the problem of missing data, so scenario analysis based estimation research is carried out. Under the constraints of emission standards, three emission limit scenarios are set: maintaining, ultra-low, and tightening. Based on the SBM model, a carbon emission reduction potential index model is constructed using the full factor carbon emission efficiency measurement method. Build a model that considers the impact of industrial output value and estimate carbon emission rights from 2018 to 2030. After analysis and calculation of allocation weights, experiments show that carbon emission performance is less than 0.05, efficiency is improved, weight is about 4.64%, and industrial carbon emissions contribute nearly zero.
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