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Dynamics and optimal control for tuberculosis transmission via a data-validated periodic model.
1School of Sciences, Hangzhou Dianzi University, Hangzhou, 310018, China.
Infectious Disease Modelling
|October 2, 2025
Summary
Adolescents significantly impact tuberculosis transmission in China. Mathematical modeling revealed that targeting this age group is crucial for effective tuberculosis control strategies, aiding in reducing disease prevalence.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
- Public Health
Background:
- Tuberculosis (TB) poses a significant global health challenge, with China being a major contributor to its incidence.
- Understanding TB transmission dynamics across different age groups, particularly adolescents, is vital for effective control.
- Periodic transmission patterns of TB in mainland China necessitate specialized modeling approaches.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the role of adolescents in tuberculosis transmission within China.
- To develop and analyze a mathematical model for periodic TB transmission considering age structure.
- To identify optimal control strategies for TB based on mathematical modeling and cost-benefit analysis.
Main Methods:
- A non-autonomous differential equation model incorporating age structure and periodic transmission was developed.
- The basic reproduction number (R0) was derived to assess disease endemicity and stability.
- Sensitivity analysis was performed to identify key factors influencing TB transmission, with a focus on the adolescent group.
- A TB transmission control model was constructed to evaluate optimal control strategies, including ACER and ICER calculations.
Main Results:
- The estimated basic reproduction number (R0) for TB in mainland China was 1.18, indicating low endemicity.
- Sensitivity analysis highlighted the significant and indispensable role of the adolescent group in TB transmission dynamics.
- Four optimal control strategies were proposed, with associated benefits (ACER) and incremental benefits (ICER) calculated.
Conclusions:
- Adolescents are a critical demographic for TB transmission in China and must be a focus of control efforts.
- Mathematical modeling provides valuable insights into TB epidemiology and the effectiveness of control interventions.
- Targeted recommendations for controlling TB transmission among different groups can be derived from the study's findings.
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