Short- and long-term effects of HOPE VI redevelopment on neighborhood housing conditions

Recognizing the negative effects of concentrated poverty on access to quality housing and neighborhood investment, governments have pursued poverty deconcentration policies such as mixed-income housing, which promotes neighbourhood social mix to improve housing and neighborhood conditions. This study evaluated the effects of HOPE VI, an influential mixed-income housing policy in the U.S., on the housing context of surrounding neighbourhoods using quasi-experimental methods and geocoded indicators from 1990-2016. We matched HOPE VI and control census tracts, then used a flexible conditional difference-in-differences method to estimate average treatment effects on the treated, accounting for differing treatment start dates and durations. Results demonstrate that HOPE VI increased housing values and rents, decreased vacancy rates, and decreased age of housing relative to control tracts. There were no significant effects on homeownership rates. Impacts were strongest in neighbourhoods that were high poverty, high vacancy, and predominantly Black prior to grant receipt. Results suggest that HOPE VI changed broader neighborhood housing contexts.