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Updated: Jan 16, 2026

Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
Analysis of china's population problem and three-child policy adjustment in the new development stage
Bo Wang1, Junfang Bai2, Yahui Liu3
1School of Economics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China.
Background:
The continuous evolution of China's population policy has not only achieved demographic transition but also brought about issues suchas social aging and gender imbalance.
Aims:
This study examines China's birth policy changes, current population development, and future birth policy reformation since entering the new stage of development.
Settings And Design:
The research follows the principle of the unity of policy logic and history, and is carried out from three aspects: the significance of policy reform, the effect of addressing population issues, and the implementation environment.
Methods And Material:
The literature research method is used to sort out the evolution of birth policies, and the data of the 5th, 6th, and 7th national population censuses are used to analyze the current situation of population development.
Statistical Analysis Used:
Descriptive Statistics.
Results And Conclusions:
The following conclusions can be drawn: First, the aging population problem is an inevitable, unrealistic social development trend that may cause a soaring social dependency ratio. A social pension system would solve the aging problem. Second, China's birth policy may not have improved the birth rate. Third, China's birth policy objective of widening family space and addressing human caused gender imbalances may prevent population inertia's impact. Fourth, the birth policy was foundational in implementing China's macroeconomic regulation and control policy.
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