Bayesian analyses of radiocarbon dates suggest multiple origins of ceramic technology in Early Holocene Africa

Ceramic technology emerged and spread in Saharan Africa between the end of the 11th and the beginning of the 10th millennium cal BP during the so-called African Humid Period. This innovation is linked to hunter-gatherer-fisher groups adapting to changing and increased ecological productivity. Several putative points of origin and the resulting corridors of diffusion of this technology have been suggested in the literature, but there is currently no consensus on whether ceramics in this region originated as a single or multiple independent episodes of innovation. Here, we synthesise the available radiocarbon evidence associated with the presence and absence of ceramic technology in Early Holocene Africa and statistically model spatio-temporal diffusion processes using different combinations of putative origin points. The result of our model comparison provides support for either a dual or triple-origin model, with core areas potentially in the Central Sahara, Nile Valley and West Africa. These findings refine current debates on early pottery innovation, highlighting the role of localized technological choices, environmental factors and interregional interactions in shaping its spread.