Dynamic Networks of Negotiation for International Climate Change Cooperation

Area of Science:

• International Relations
• Climate Change Policy
• Network Analysis

Background:

• Global climate change response is negotiated via Conferences of the Parties (COPs) under the UNFCCC.
• The UNFCCC has evolved from developed country emission reduction focus to broader global responsibility.
• Formal institutions and negotiating blocs do not fully explain COP successes or failures.

Purpose of the Study:

• To examine dynamic country affiliations in climate negotiations not evident in public votes or documents.
• To map evolving informal allegiances using country co-mentions in high-level segment (HLS) speeches.
• To model these affiliations using Dynamic Network Logistic Regression (DNR).

Main Methods:

• Analysis of high-level segment (HLS) speeches from UNFCCC Conferences of the Parties (COPs).
• Extraction of country co-mentions to construct dynamic negotiation networks.
• Application of Dynamic Network Logistic Regression (DNR) to model country affiliations.

Main Results:

• Negotiation affiliations are shown to dissolve over time, indicating shifting informal allegiances.
• The European Union demonstrates strong internal homophily.
• Major countries (China, Russia, US, Japan) decrease future co-mentions, while Germany increases them. Network clustering, prior co-mentions (inertia), and past exclusion influence future mentions.

Conclusions:

• Dynamic network analysis captures evolving informal structures in international climate negotiations.
• Shifting affiliations provide insights beyond stable formal blocs.
• Understanding these evolving networks is crucial for analyzing COP successes and failures.