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Comprehensive Endovascular and Open Surgical Management of Cerebral Arteriovenous Malformations
Published on: October 20, 2017
Risk of Future Hemorrhage From Unruptured Brain Arteriovenous Malformations: The Multicenter Arteriovenous
Helen Kim1,2, Jeffrey Nelson1, Charles E McCulloch2
1Center for Cerebrovascular Research, Department of Anesthesia and Perioperative Care, University of California, San Francisco.
Importance:
Annual rates of first intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) from unruptured brain arteriovenous malformations (AVMs) are often quoted as 2% to 4% in clinical practice. Precise estimates and risk factors are unavailable to inform treatment decisions.
Objective:
To provide estimates of rates and risk factors for first ICH in a large cohort study of unruptured brain AVMs.
Design, Setting, And Participants:
The Multicenter Arteriovenous Malformation Research Study (MARS) included data from 9 cohorts, each contributing 100 or more unruptured brain AVMs. The study was conducted from 2017 to 2023 with retrospective and prospective data collection for existing cohorts and/or new recruitment. This was an international study (2 population-based and 7 referral-based cohorts) that included participants diagnosed with an unruptured brain AVM.
Exposures:
Demographic, clinical, and angiographic characteristics.
Main Outcome And Measure:
The primary outcome was time to first ICH after diagnosis of unruptured brain AVM. Data were collected using standardized definitions; missing data were imputed. Cox regression analysis was performed, censoring at first brain AVM treatment, death, or last visit, and allowing baseline hazards to vary by cohort.
Results:
A total of 3225 individuals were eligible for participation in this study. After 195 exclusions, 3030 participants (median [IQR] age, 38 [25-50] years; 1524 female [50.3%]) were included. Among 2989 participants with unruptured brain AVMs, 1333 (45%) presented with seizure. The median (IQR) maximal brain AVM diameter was 3.1 (2.2-4.4) cm, 248 of 2466 AVMs (10%) had exclusively deep venous drainage, 297 of 2690 (11%) were in supratentorial deep or cerebellar locations, and 457 of 2440 (19%) had associated arterial aneurysms. First ICH occurred in 159 participants over 11 339 person-years of follow-up for an ICH rate of 1.40 (95% CI, 1.20-1.64) per 100 person-years. Significant independent risk factors included (1) increasing age category at diagnosis (hazard ratio [HR], 0.87; 95% CI, 0.53-1.41 for those aged 20 to 39 years; HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 0.74-2.04 for those aged 40 to 59 years; and HR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.14-3.57 for those aged 60 years vs younger than 20 years; P = .008), (2) presence of associated aneurysms (HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.06-2.59; P = .03), and (3) cerebellar or supratentorial deep location (HR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.16-3.00; P = .01).
Conclusions And Relevance:
The annual ICH rate from unruptured brain AVM was lower than that commonly cited in clinical practice. Increasing age, associated arterial aneurysms, and cerebellar or supratentorial deep brain AVM location were associated with risk of first ICH. These results may be used to counsel patients about the natural history of unruptured brain AVMs.
Insights
The annual risk of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) from unruptured brain arteriovenous malformations (AVMs) is lower than previously thought. Key risk factors for ICH include older age, associated aneurysms, and deep AVM location.
Area of Science:
- Neurology
- Neurosurgery
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Annual rates of first intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) from unruptured brain arteriovenous malformations (AVMs) are often cited as 2% to 4%.
- Precise estimates and risk factors for ICH in unruptured brain AVMs are lacking, hindering informed treatment decisions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate the rates and identify risk factors for the first ICH in a large cohort of individuals with unruptured brain AVMs.
Main Methods:
- The Multicenter Arteriovenous Malformation Research Study (MARS) analyzed data from 9 international cohorts (2 population-based, 7 referral-based) from 2017-2023.
- Included 3030 participants with unruptured brain AVMs; primary outcome was time to first ICH.
- Utilized Cox regression analysis with imputation for missing data, censoring at treatment, death, or last visit.
Main Results:
- The annual ICH rate was 1.40 per 100 person-years (95% CI, 1.20-1.64), lower than commonly cited figures.
- Significant independent risk factors for ICH included increasing age at diagnosis (P=.008), presence of associated aneurysms (P=.03), and deep AVM location (P=.01).
- Seizures were present in 45% of participants; median AVM diameter was 3.1 cm.
Conclusions:
- The actual annual ICH rate for unruptured brain AVMs is lower than clinical practice estimates.
- Older age, associated aneurysms, and deep AVM location are significant risk factors for first ICH.
- Findings can inform patient counseling regarding the natural history of unruptured brain AVMs.
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