Risk of Future Hemorrhage From Unruptured Brain Arteriovenous Malformations: The Multicenter Arteriovenous

Helen Kim1,2, Jeffrey Nelson1, Charles E McCulloch2

  • 1Center for Cerebrovascular Research, Department of Anesthesia and Perioperative Care, University of California, San Francisco.

JAMA Neurology
|October 6, 2025
PubMed
Abstract

Insights

The annual risk of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) from unruptured brain arteriovenous malformations (AVMs) is lower than previously thought. Key risk factors for ICH include older age, associated aneurysms, and deep AVM location.

Area of Science:

  • Neurology
  • Neurosurgery
  • Epidemiology

Background:

  • Annual rates of first intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) from unruptured brain arteriovenous malformations (AVMs) are often cited as 2% to 4%.
  • Precise estimates and risk factors for ICH in unruptured brain AVMs are lacking, hindering informed treatment decisions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To estimate the rates and identify risk factors for the first ICH in a large cohort of individuals with unruptured brain AVMs.

Main Methods:

  • The Multicenter Arteriovenous Malformation Research Study (MARS) analyzed data from 9 international cohorts (2 population-based, 7 referral-based) from 2017-2023.
  • Included 3030 participants with unruptured brain AVMs; primary outcome was time to first ICH.
  • Utilized Cox regression analysis with imputation for missing data, censoring at treatment, death, or last visit.

Main Results:

  • The annual ICH rate was 1.40 per 100 person-years (95% CI, 1.20-1.64), lower than commonly cited figures.
  • Significant independent risk factors for ICH included increasing age at diagnosis (P=.008), presence of associated aneurysms (P=.03), and deep AVM location (P=.01).
  • Seizures were present in 45% of participants; median AVM diameter was 3.1 cm.

Conclusions:

  • The actual annual ICH rate for unruptured brain AVMs is lower than clinical practice estimates.
  • Older age, associated aneurysms, and deep AVM location are significant risk factors for first ICH.
  • Findings can inform patient counseling regarding the natural history of unruptured brain AVMs.

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