Temporary Employment and First Births: A Path Analysis of the Underlying Mechanisms Using Australian and German Panel...

Area of Science:

• Sociology
• Economics
• Demography

Background:

• Temporary employment contracts are increasingly common globally.
• Previous research indicates a negative association between temporary work and fertility rates.
• The specific mechanisms driving this relationship require further investigation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To examine the mediating roles of wages, financial satisfaction, job tenure, and job insecurity.
• To compare these pathways in two distinct national contexts: Australia and Germany.
• To understand how temporary work influences the transition to first birth.

Main Methods:

• Utilized event-history and path analysis models.
• Analyzed longitudinal data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey (n=28,530) and the German Socio-Economic Panel (n=31,608) over 19 years.
• Investigated mediating pathways between temporary work and first birth.

Main Results:

• Casual work in Australia (men and women) and fixed-term contracts in Germany (women) were associated with a lower likelihood of first birth compared to permanent employment.
• Lower wages significantly explained these fertility differences for both genders.
• Job tenure (Germany) and job insecurity (Australia) mediated the relationship for women, but financial satisfaction did not mediate for any group.

Conclusions:

• Objective financial disadvantage, primarily lower wages, is a critical factor in temporary workers postponing first births.
• Subjective job insecurity and financial satisfaction are not universally significant mediators of first-birth decisions among temporary workers.
• Policy interventions addressing financial security may be crucial for supporting fertility decisions in the context of temporary employment.