Public health interventions for developing resilience to contagious diseases: a system dynamics approach

Contagious diseases severely impact health systems and economies, with close contact leading to further spread and fatalities. This paper examines the effects of government interventions on controlling such diseases. Key interventions include media isolation of susceptible individuals, effective quarantining of infected persons, and vaccination. A system dynamics approach models the complexities of government interventions in coronary conditions. We used the SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, and Recovered) model and developed a new model to address its shortcomings for a new virus. Resilience actions were defined and plotted based on the emergency management cycle phases: Prevention, Preparedness, Response, and Recovery. The model can be applied to any contagious disease worldwide. We calibrated the model using data from sources like the World Health Organization (WHO) and Centers for Disease Control (CDC), and validated it against official and historical data. A sensitivity analysis was conducted based on various resilience strategies: Isolation Rate Slope, Isolation Efficiency, Minimum Isolation Rate, Quarantine Portion, Quarantine Transmission, Vaccination Rate, and Media Rate Slope. The study identifies key conditions for controlling outbreaks: achieving rapid isolation with a minimum rate above 50% and efficiency above 95%, rapid detection and quarantine above 90% with efficiency over 92%, and an optimal contact rate below 0.2, achieved with a media rate slope of 0.005 and vaccination rate above 90%. These measures can control the disease within 455 days or less.