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Superspreading and the evolution of virulence
Xander O'Neill1, Andy White1, Graham R Northrup2,3
1Maxwell Institute for Mathematical Sciences and Department of Mathematics, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, United Kingdom.
Plos Computational Biology
|October 9, 2025
Summary
Superspreading events significantly influence pathogen evolution. Depending on host factors, superspreading can select for higher or milder virulence, slowing pathogen adaptation and maintaining variants.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Evolutionary Biology
- Pathogen Dynamics
Background:
- Superspreading is crucial in pathogen transmission for many diseases, including SARS-CoV-2.
- The effect of superspreading on pathogen virulence evolution remains poorly understood.
- Understanding these dynamics is vital for predicting disease spread and evolution.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate how superspreading impacts the evolutionary selection of pathogen virulence.
- To analyze the role of transmission distributions and host factors in this process.
- To determine the consequences of superspreading for pathogen adaptation rates.
Main Methods:
- Theoretical modeling.
- Deterministic and stochastic simulations of pathogen transmission and evolution.
- Analysis across various host transmission distributions.
Main Results:
- Superspreading selects for higher virulence when linked to increased host tolerance or asymptomatic infection.
- In animal systems with host fitness benefits, superspreading may select for milder pathogens.
- Transmission distribution alone does not affect virulence selection, but superspreading slows pathogen evolution and increases variant diversity.
Conclusions:
- Superspreading has significant implications for pathogen virulence evolution.
- It can slow adaptation and lead to the persistence of maladaptive pathogen variants.
- The specific host-pathogen interaction context determines the direction of evolutionary selection.
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