Extreme weather risks for European agriculture (1981-2020): A quantitative review using the E3CI

Extreme weather increasingly disrupts European agriculture, yet no continent-wide, multi-hazard assessment has been available. This study provides the first pan-European, growing-season synthesis of agricultural climate hazards using the European Extreme Events Climate Index (E3CI)-applied here for the first time in risk assessment. The E3CI is a composite indicator of seven hazards (Warm, Cool, Drought, Fire, Hail, Precipitation, Wind) for 39 countries, 1981-2020. Changes are quantified with an endpoint decadal contrast (Δ = 2011-2020 - 1981-1990; April-October), and zonal (west-east) and meridional (north-south) gradients are evaluated. Uncertainty is assessed with moving-block bootstrap 95 % CIs, multiplicity controlled by FDR. The share of growing seasons with Warm rose from 6 % to 74 % (a 12-fold increase), while Cool declined from 31 % to 12 %. Drought frequency increased (8 → 13 cases/decade), as did fire (3 → 12). Severity rose sharply for fire (5 → 117) and increased for precipitation (8 → 22) and drought (11 → 22), while cold severity declined. Only Warm (97 % of countries) and, to a lesser extent, Drought exhibit widespread significant increases, whereas other hazards remain sporadic. Spatial contrasts are evident: bootstrap CIs and FDR tests reveal robust W-E and NS contrasts-Warm, Cool and Wind intensify more in Western/Northern Europe, whereas Drought, Precipitation, Hail and Fire strengthen in Eastern/Southern Europe. Spatial diagnostics confirm stable subregional clustering. Adaptation options include resilient crops, better water management, early-warning systems, while future research should integrate socio-economic factors and AI. E3CI thus provides a novel, reproducible framework for pan-European, multi-hazard agricultural risk assessment.