Development and validation of an interpretable shap-based machine learning model for predicting postoperative
Changling Li1,2, Chenyang Xu1,2, Jinzhuang Xu3
1Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan250063, Shandong Province, China.
Objective:
Postoperative complications remain a major concern in laryngeal cancer surgery, often requiring invasive interventions or intensive care. This study aimed to develop and validate an interpretable machine learning (ML) model to preoperatively predict Clavien-Dindo Grade ≥ III complications and support risk-informed perioperative decision-making.
Methods:
We conducted a retrospective study using a temporally split cohort of laryngeal cancer patients. Postoperative complications were graded using the Clavien-Dindo (CD) classification. Eight ML algorithms were trained and evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Model interpretability was assessed using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). A web-based calculator was deployed for clinical use.
Result:
The random forest (RF) model achieved the best performance, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.935 in the training set and 0.842 in the test set. The model demonstrated robust sensitivity and specificity for both surgical and medical complications. Calibration curves indicated strong agreement between predicted and actual outcomes. SHAP analysis identified eight key predictors-such as vocal cord mobility, tumor subsite, and nutritional status-that contributed most to risk estimation. A user-friendly web calculator was developed and is accessible at: https://qilushiny.shinyapps.io/qilupredicate/ .
Conclusion:
We developed a clinically interpretable ML model that accurately predicts major postoperative complications in patients undergoing laryngeal cancer surgery. This tool provides individualized risk assessments that can guide surgical planning, optimize perioperative strategies, and enhance shared decision-making. Prospective multicenter validation is needed to confirm its utility in routine practice.
