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Published on: November 6, 2020
Development and validation of a prediction model for pulmonary infection in elderly patients with traumatic brain
Shuai Tian1, Ali Shang2, Wenqian Zhou3
1Department of Neurosurgery, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Shaanxi University of Chinese Medicine, Xianyang, China; Department of Neurosurgery, Tangdu Hospital, Air Force Medica University, Xi'an, China.
Objectives:
This study aimed to investigate risk factors associated with pulmonary infection (PI) in elderly patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI). Additionally, this study sought to develop and validate a predictive model for PI in elderly patients with TBI using clinical data obtained upon admission.
Methods:
The study retrospectively analyzed elderly patients (≥65 years) with TBI at Tangdu Hospital between January 2011 and December 2021. These patients were randomly allocated to training and validation sets in a 7:3 ratio. A nomogram model was developed to predict the risk of PI in elderly patients with TBI. Internal validation was conducted using a verification set, while external validation was performed using patient data from a different hospital.
Results:
A total of 592 elderly patients with TBI were included. The Glasgow coma scale score on admission, chest injury, hemoglobin, albumin, C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, B-type natriuretic peptide, troponin, and surgery was found to be independent predictors of PI in elderly patients with TBI. The nomogram demonstrated good discrimination ability, with a consistency index of 0.918 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.891-0.944), which was verified to be 0.848 (95% CI: 0.786-0.910). The area under the curve for the external validation cohorts was 0.836 (95% CI: 0.770-0.903).
Conclusions:
This study developed and validated a prediction model for PI in elderly patients with TBI. The nomogram model demonstrated a favorable discriminatory and predictive capacity for predicting PI in elderly patients with TBI.
