Data-driven modeling and prediction of microglial cell dynamics in the ischemic penumbra

Sara Amato1, Andrea Arnold2

  • 1Bioinformatics & Computational Biology Program, Worcester Polytechnic Institute, Worcester, MA, USA.

Mathematical Biosciences
|October 11, 2025
PubMed

Insights

This study models microglial cell dynamics following ischemic stroke. Results show an initial M2 phenotype dominance, followed by M1 phenotype takeover, suggesting a persistent neuroinflammatory response.

Area of Science:

  • Neuroscience
  • Immunology
  • Computational Biology

Background:

  • Ischemic stroke triggers neuroinflammation, involving microglial cells in the brain's penumbra.
  • Microglial cells exhibit M1 (detrimental) and M2 (beneficial) phenotypes, but their dynamic interplay post-stroke is unclear.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To model the dynamic behavior of M1 and M2 microglial phenotypes after ischemic stroke.
  • To understand the temporal shifts between detrimental and beneficial microglial responses.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized phenotype-specific cell count data from mouse models of middle cerebral artery occlusion (MCAO).
  • Employed sparsity-promoting system identification and Bayesian statistics for model development and uncertainty quantification.
  • Generated continuous- and discrete-time predictive models of microglial cell dynamics.

Main Results:

  • Developed sparse, data-driven models explaining M1 and M2 dynamics with constant and linear terms.
  • Observed an initial dominance of the M2 microglial phenotype.
  • Documented a subsequent shift towards M1 phenotype dominance, indicating a potential long-term inflammatory response.

Conclusions:

  • The study provides predictive models for microglial cell dynamics post-ischemic stroke.
  • Findings suggest a complex, evolving inflammatory response with a transition from beneficial to detrimental microglial states.
  • Highlights the potential for persistent neuroinflammation following stroke.

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