Data-driven modeling and prediction of microglial cell dynamics in the ischemic penumbra

Neuroinflammation immediately follows the onset of ischemic stroke. During this process, microglial cells are activated in and recruited to the tissue surrounding the irreversibly injured infarct core, referred to as the penumbra. Microglial cells can be activated into two distinct phenotypes; however, the dynamics between the detrimental M1 phenotype and beneficial M2 phenotype are not fully understood. Using phenotype-specific cell count data obtained from experimental studies on middle cerebral artery occlusion-induced stroke in mice, we employ sparsity-promoting system identification techniques combined with Bayesian statistical methods for uncertainty quantification to generate continuous and discrete-time predictive models of the M1 and M2 microglial cell dynamics. The resulting sparse, data-driven models explain the data using constant and linear terms. Results emphasize an initial M2 dominance followed by a takeover of M1 cells, capture potential long-term dynamics of microglial cells, and suggest a persistent inflammatory response.