Climate-induced migration and climate immobility in Ghana: A socio-ecological mixed method study

Several communities face the cyclical challenge of living with situations where climate change events and triggers push members to migrate at their own planned and prepared timelines or against their own prepared timelines often termed voluntary and involuntary climate-induced migration. There are others who express no desire to migrate despite the exposure to climate change stressors in addition to those who desire to migrate and or are unable to migrate and may feel trapped due to their exposure to climate change stressors (flood, extreme heat, windstorm and drought). The combined occurrence of these climate change outcomes (Climate change induced migration and Climate immobility) emerges as two polar end complicated socio-environmental challenge with varying socio-economic impacts on livelihoods. This study examines the drivers of climate-induced migration and climate immobility among rural and peri‑urban Ghanaian residents in the northern and upper-east regions of Ghana.

The study was anchored on an embedded concurrent mixed method design, with 2125 persons surveyed and 21 interviews conducted across 12 communities in the Talensi and Savelugu district in Upper East and Northern region of Ghana. Multistage cluster sampling and purposive sampling were used to select participants for both quantitative and qualitative component of the study. The dependent variables were climate migration and climate immobility. The independent variables include socio demographic characteristics and participants experience with climate induced displacement. Using a multilevel regression analysis, the determinants of climate migration and climate immobility are analyzed with variables considered significant at p < 0.05. A comparative thematic approach guided the qualitative analysis.

The experience of climate-induced migration was reported by 462(21.7%) individuals. Nearly half, 1060(49.9%) respondents were climate change immobile reflected in their show of no intentions of relocating from their present location notwithstanding climate change conditions. The age of residents with persons 36-45 years and above 55 years showed an increased likelihood of being climate immobile. Moreover, income levels were positively associated with climate immobility as individuals with low income (aOR= 1.607;95% CI= 1.247,2.071) had higher odds of being climate immobile. For climate-induced migration, individuals who self-rated their present health condition as poorer than a year ago had a greater likelihood of migrating (aOR=2.690;95%CI=1.744-4.148) compared to those with better health status. The qualitative narratives present the predictability of climate displacement experiences of an annual minimum of 3 to 14 times occurrences heralded by flooding from Bagre Dam spillage.

The central and local government authorities must strengthen the existing adaptive capacities of climate change-induced vulnerable populations.