Preview risk assessment of climatic factors on dengue prevalence in Lahore, Pakistan

Indeed, dengue is known as the most widely distributed and rapidly transmitted mosquito-borne infection in the world. Climate change plays a significant role in both the temporal and spatial distribution of vector-borne diseases. The main objective of this investigation was to examine the impact of seasonal factors and the relationship between climate and dengue risk in the vicinity of Lahore, Pakistan, from 2007 to 2018. This study employed the generalized linear model (GLM) approach in combination with negative Poisson and binomial distributions. Hotspot areas were identified using ArcGIS, which may have the potential for a high concentration of reported dengue cases in the Lahore area. Based on the results, it has been confirmed that there was a seasonal fluctuation in the number of dengue cases per month, which correlated with the seasonality of climatic variables. Furthermore, the best-fitting model included average temperature (< 22°C) and precipitation-both lagged by one month and controlled by year. According to this model, each 1°C increase in a month's average temperature was associated with a 12% decrease in dengue cases, whereas each 10 mm increase in precipitation was associated with a 5% increase in dengue cases in the following month. Many factors, including the climate, contribute to the incidence of dengue cases, yet their role remains incompletely understood. Understanding climate is essential for analyzing epidemic risk and improving protective measures. This study highlights the need to improve dengue surveillance, epidemiology, and community health structure to safeguard and control future dengue outbreaks.