Simple scaling laws control the genetic architectures of human complex traits

Genome-wide association studies have revealed that the genetic architectures of complex traits vary widely, including in terms of the numbers, effect sizes, and allele frequencies of significant hits. However, at present we lack a principled way of understanding the similarities and differences among traits. Here, we describe a probabilistic model that combines the effects of mutation, drift, and stabilizing selection at individual sites with a genome-scale model of phenotypic variation. In this model, the architecture of a trait arises from the distribution of selection coefficients of mutations and from two scaling parameters. We fit this model for 95 highly polygenic quantitative traits of different kinds from the UK Biobank. Notably, we infer that all these traits have fairly similar, though not identical, distributions of selection coefficients. This similarity suggests that differences in architectures of highly polygenic traits arise mainly from the two scaling parameters: the mutational target size and heritability per site, which vary by orders of magnitude among traits. When these two scale factors are accounted for, we find that the architectures of all 95 traits are very similar.