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Registered report: Stress testing predictive models of ideological prejudice
Jordan L Thompson1, Abigail L Cassario2, Shree Vallabha3
1Department of Psychology, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, Florida, United States of America.
Plos One
|October 13, 2025
Summary
Existing models effectively predict the ideology-prejudice association using perceived ideology alone or with group status and choice. This predictive power, however, does not consistently generalize to implicit association tests or relative prejudice measures.
Area of Science:
- Social Psychology
- Political Psychology
Background:
- The association between political ideology and prejudice varies across different social groups.
- Previous models predict this association using perceived ideology, status, and group choice.
Purpose of the Study:
- To rigorously test and validate existing models predicting the ideology-prejudice association.
- To assess model generalizability with diverse prejudice measures and target groups.
Main Methods:
- Stress-testing predictive models with explicit prejudice measures, comparative prejudice operationalizations, and the Implicit Association Test (IAT).
- Replicating previous findings using absolute prejudice measures in Study 1.
- Developing and testing new models for relative and IAT prejudice measures in Study 2 using Project Implicit data.
Main Results:
- Ideology-only and ideology, status, and choice models effectively predicted the ideology-prejudice association with absolute prejudice measures.
- These models replicated findings from previous research.
- Model-building strategies were less effective for relative or IAT prejudice measures, showing no significant differences in predictive ability.
Conclusions:
- The ideology-only and ideology, status, and choice models are robust predictors for absolute prejudice measures.
- The predictive utility of these models may not extend to relative or Implicit Association Test measures of prejudice.
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