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Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Prevalence Projection in 2040: A Less Rare Disease.

Rosario Vasta1, Stefano Callegaro1, Antonio Canosa1,2,3

  • 1ALS Center, Department of Neuroscience "Rita Levi Montalcini", University of Turin, Turin, Italy.

Annals of Clinical and Translational Neurology
|October 14, 2025
PubMed
Summary

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) prevalence is expected to rise globally due to aging populations and improved survival rates. This projection highlights the critical need for enhanced public health planning and resource allocation for ALS care.

Keywords:
amyotrophic lateral sclerosisepidemiologyprevalencepublic healthsurvival

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Area of Science:

  • Neurology
  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a progressive neurodegenerative disease.
  • Understanding future ALS prevalence is crucial for healthcare planning.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To project the global prevalence of ALS up to the year 2040.
  • To account for the impacts of population aging and increased patient survival on ALS prevalence.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized data from the Piemonte and Valle d'Aosta ALS register (PARALS) to analyze incidence, prevalence, and survival trends from 2005-2019.
  • Projected future ALS incidence using population projections and applied observed survival trends.
  • Estimated prevalence by multiplying projected incidence with projected survival, and extended projections to fifteen countries.

Main Results:

  • ALS survival in the study region increased by 0.06 years annually (2005-2019).
  • ALS prevalence is projected to reach 15.72 per 100,000 by 2040 in the region, with a median global increase of 24.9%.
  • A hypothetical 6-month survival increase from 2025 could raise prevalence by 37.8% by 2040.

Conclusions:

  • ALS prevalence is set to significantly increase in the coming decades.
  • This projected rise necessitates proactive public health resource management and strategic planning.