Bioclimate analogue regions - finding present day examples for future bioclimatic conditions

Area of Science:

• Climatology
• Regional Planning
• Environmental Science

Background:

• The Rhenish lignite mining area in western Germany is undergoing a significant structural transformation.
• Projected climate change, specifically increased heat stress, necessitates adaptation strategies for this region.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify bioclimatic analogue regions for the Rhenish lignite mining area.
• To provide insights into potential future climate conditions based on current analogues.

Main Methods:

• Utilized climate analogue regions combined with a bioclimatic approach.
• Employed the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) with parameters including temperature, solar radiation, wind, and relative humidity.
• Analyzed an ensemble of 15 GCM-RCM model combinations from EURO-CORDEX data, considering 3-h temporal resolution and diurnal variations.

Main Results:

• Identified potential analogue regions primarily in southern Europe.
• The Gulf du Lion in southern France exhibited the highest climate similarity across the ensemble.
• Other regions, including areas near the Black Sea and south of Bordeaux, showed similarities in individual model results.

Conclusions:

• Southern Europe offers relevant climate analogues for the Rhenish lignite mining area's projected future.
• The study highlights the value of full-coverage data for detailed spatial analysis in climate analogue determination.
• Understanding present-day climate analogues is crucial for effective regional planning in areas facing structural changes.