Understanding climate change perceptions among urban residents in China: Insights from a nationwide survey

Climate change is a pressing global challenge, and public attitudes play a critical role in shaping individual actions and the effectiveness of mitigation and adaptation policies. However, large-scale evidence on urban climate change perceptions in China remains limited, and the underlying mechanisms are not well understood. This study analyses 9819 survey responses collected in 2023 across major Chinese cities to develop a Public Perception Index (PPI) of climate change. An interpretable machine learning model is applied to identify key drivers and their nonlinear effects. The results show that males report slightly higher PPI scores than females, and workers in manufacturing, transportation, construction, and energy industries display stronger perceptions, while retirees and those in poor health report lower scores. Experience with extreme weather emerges as the strongest predictor of PPI, followed by annual income and subjective well-being, all exerting positive effects. Physical health interacts with subjective well-being, while both age and carbon emission intensity show inverted U-shaped relationships with PPI. Urban attributes, including city size and urbanisation rate, significantly influence perceptions, whereas political centrality and pilot climate policies have negligible effects. These findings reveal substantial group heterogeneity in urban climate change perceptions, clarify the role of nonlinear factors, and provide targeted insights to support more effective climate adaptation policies in China.