Glucose-Lowering Medication Classes and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes

Romain Neugebauer1, Jaejin An2, Sarah Krahe Dombrowski3

  • 1Division of Research, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Pleasanton.

JAMA Network Open
|October 15, 2025
PubMed

Insights

Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) risk is lowest with glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) and sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) in type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients. Benefits vary by patient characteristics, informing personalized treatment strategies.

Area of Science:

  • Cardiology
  • Endocrinology
  • Pharmacology

Background:

  • Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) are a leading cause of death in type 2 diabetes (T2D).
  • Limited head-to-head trials and inadequate bias adjustment in observational studies hinder comparative effectiveness research of glucose-lowering medications on MACEs.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To compare the effectiveness of four glucose-lowering medication classes—sulfonylureas, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4is), sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2is), and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs)—on MACEs in US adults with T2D.
  • To utilize modern causal inference methods and machine learning for robust bias adjustment in this comparative effectiveness study.

Main Methods:

  • A comparative effectiveness study involving 241,981 adults with T2D initiated on one of four medication classes (sulfonylureas, DPP4is, SGLT2is, GLP-1RAs) between 2014-2021.
  • Employed targeted learning within a trial emulation framework to analyze MACEs (nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, cardiovascular death).
  • Assessed heterogeneity of treatment effects across prespecified subgroups.

Main Results:

  • Sustained exposure to GLP-1RAs was associated with the lowest 2.5-year MACE risk, followed by SGLT2is, sulfonylureas, and DPP4is.
  • The cumulative risk difference between SGLT2is and GLP-1RAs was 1.5% (95% CI, 1.1%-1.9%).
  • Benefits of GLP-1RAs over SGLT2is were most pronounced in patients with baseline atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), heart failure (HF), older age (≥65 years), or moderate kidney impairment.

Conclusions:

  • Medication class significantly impacts MACE risk in T2D patients, with GLP-1RAs and SGLT2is offering the most protection.
  • The comparative benefit of GLP-1RAs versus SGLT2is is influenced by patient factors like age, ASCVD, HF, and kidney function.
  • These findings, alongside cost and clinical considerations, can guide personalized treatment decisions for T2D management.
Abstract

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