[Assessment and Prediction of Trade-offs and Synergies of Ecosystem Services in Hebei Province]

Forecasting the quality of four ecosystem services under four different development scenarios in Hebei Province for the year 2030， as well as assessing the trade-offs and synergies among these services， can facilitate developing informed land use policies and balancing economic growth with ecological conservation. By coupling the grey prediction theory with the generalized multi-objective linear programming （GMMOP） model， we obtained the land use areas under different development scenarios. The PLUS model was utilized to forecast the land use distribution in Hebei Province in 2030 under the four distinct development scenarios. Quantitative evaluation of the evolution law of water conservation， carbon storage， soil conservation， and habitat quality was conducted based on the InVEST model. The Pearson correlation coefficient method was employed to investigate the relationships between the four ecosystem services under the different development scenarios. The research findings indicate that water conservation decreased by 42.054×10⁸ m³， carbon storage decreased by 0.576×10⁸ t， soil conservation decreased by 30.289×10⁸ t， and habitat quality diminished by 0.02 from 1990 to 2020. Under the comprehensive development scenario （CD）， soil conservation increased by 0.456×10⁸ t， while the other three ecosystem service metrics declined. In the natural development scenario （ND）， soil conservation rose by 0.127×10⁸ t， with a decline in the other three ecosystem service metrics. Under the economic development scenario （ED）， soil conservation increased by 0.458×10⁸ t， while the other three ecosystem service metrics declined. In the ecological protection scenario （EP）， all four ecosystem service metrics increased. From a province-wide perspective， the different ecosystem services of prefecture-level cities in Hebei Province， except for Chengde City and Zhangjiakou City， showed a synergic relationship of simultaneous increase and decrease. Under the four development scenarios， the relationships between the four ecosystem services of most cities did not change significantly. Only Chengde City showed carbon storage-soil conservation， carbon storage-habitat quality， and water conservation growth under the EP， ED， and CD development scenarios. The tradeoff synergistic relationship between environment and quality changed significantly.