Estimating Caloric Intake per Breastfeeding Session in Infants: A Probabilistic Approach
Ana Barrés-Fernández1,2, José Vicente Arcos-Machancoses1,2,3, Silvia Castillo-Corullón1,2,3
1Department of Pediatrics, Hospital Clínic Universitari de València, Valencia, Spain.
Nutrients
|October 16, 2025
Summary
Accurately estimating breast milk (BM) caloric intake is crucial for infant nutrition. This study developed a probabilistic model to provide realistic BM caloric intake estimations throughout infancy, accounting for natural variability.
Area of Science:
- Pediatrics
- Nutrition Science
- Computational Biology
Background:
- Accurate estimation of caloric intake from breastfeeding is vital for infant nutrition.
- Existing models often lack realism due to fixed assumptions about feeding behaviors and milk composition.
- There is a need for a data-driven approach to estimate breast milk (BM) caloric intake.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a realistic estimation of breast milk (BM) caloric intake throughout infancy.
- To utilize a probabilistic approach incorporating empirical data and natural variability.
- To provide a valuable research tool for infant nutrition studies.
Main Methods:
- Developed a probabilistic model using feeding frequency, volume per feeding, caloric density, and infant weight.
- Conducted systematic reviews and meta-analyses to inform model input values.
- Employed Monte Carlo simulations and World Health Organization (WHO) growth standards for estimations.
Main Results:
- Demonstrated a progressive decline in daily caloric intake per kilogram with infant age.
- Observed an increase in caloric intake per feeding as infants age.
- Results align with WHO energy intake targets and reflect physiological changes in infant growth.
Conclusions:
- The study presents a probabilistic framework for estimating BM caloric intake across infancy.
- This model accounts for interindividual and age-related variability in feeding.
- Offers a realistic, data-driven tool to support future infant nutrition and feeding behavior research.
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