Poultry Food Assess Risk Model for Salmonella and Chicken Eggs in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Salmonella presents serious risks to human health, causing about 150,000 deaths per year through the consumption of contaminated food, especially chicken eggs. Consequently, risk of salmonellosis from chicken eggs is of significant interest to the Saudi Food and Drug Authority (SFDA). Models that predict the risk of salmonellosis from chicken eggs are valuable tools for protecting public health. After a review of existing models, the SFDA selected the Poultry Food Assess Risk Model (PFARM) for the purpose of evaluating its ability to assess the risk and severity of salmonellosis for a small cohort of chicken egg consumers in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, as a proof-of-concept and pilot study. The PFARM was selected because it uses novel methods to consider more risk factors for salmonellosis than other models, such as growth potential and zoonotic potential of Salmonella, buffering capacity of the meal, and consumer behavior, health, and immunity. The SFDA examined chicken eggs from retail stores in Riyadh for Salmonella contamination and surveyed 125 consumers to obtain data for simulating how they store, prepare, and consume eggs at home, and their resistance to salmonellosis. The prevalence of Salmonella in chicken eggs at retail was 7% (7/100). The isolated Salmonella serotypes were Cerro (n = 4), Enteritidis, Stanley, and Winston. Salmonella's mean number (growth units) per contaminated egg was 1.58 log₁₀ (range: 0 to 3.08 log₁₀). The mean category for consumer survey results ranged from 1.1 (very low risk) for meal preparation time to 3.7 (high risk) for home storage time with 34.4% of consumers having low resistance to salmonellosis. Per 100,000 egg meals, the PFARM predicted 88 infections, two illnesses, and no hospitalizations or deaths. The consumers who became ill were exposed to Salmonella Enteritidis, had moderate resistance to salmonellosis but high-risk behaviors for egg storage (temperature abuse), meal preparation (poor hygiene), and consumption (undercooked eggs). These results showed that the studied chicken eggs posed a low risk and severity of salmonellosis for the surveyed consumer cohort in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and that the PFARM was fit-for-purpose. The next step is to improve the PFARM and apply it more broadly in Saudi Arabia to better define the problem and its control.