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Mortality Among Patients With Invasive Group A Streptococcal Infections Caused by the M1UK Lineage: A Retrospective
Ho Kwong Li1,2, Nina Zhu2,3,4, Olivia Waddell2
1Centre for Bacterial Resistance Biology, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Background:
The M1UK sublineage of Streptococcus pyogenes has driven recent post-pandemic surges in invasive group A streptococcal (iGAS) disease. We assessed case fatality rate (CFR) among patients with emm1 iGAS in England and Wales, and then compared outcomes associated with M1UK and ancestral emm1 lineages.
Methods:
We linked emm1 iGAS cases (December 2009-July 2022) with demographic and mortality records. Lineage was determined for isolates collected in 2010, 2013-2016, and 2020 via whole-genome sequencing or allele-specific PCR. Seven- and 30-day all-cause CFRs were estimated. Univariate and multivariate models assessed the association between lineage and risk of death.
Results:
Among 4952 emm1 iGAS cases, lineage was assigned to 1356. The 30-day CFR was 24.4% for M1UK, 22.3% for M1global, 10.5% for M123SNP, and 10.3% for M113SNP. After adjustment for age and sex, lineage was not a significant predictor of 7- or 30-day mortality. Survival analysis showed rapid progression to death in both M1UK and M1global cases: 63.7% of deaths occurred within 1 day of diagnostic sampling. Among children under 15 years, 56.3% of fatal cases died before sampling, and 95.6% within 1 day of sampling.
Conclusions:
Mortality did not differ significantly between M1UK and M1global lineages, but more studies are required. Overall mortality from emm1 S. pyogenes remains strikingly high. The rapid time to death underscores the need for preventive measures and rapid diagnostic tools that act prior to culture-based confirmation, and highlights challenges for clinical trial design in iGAS.
Insights
Mortality rates for invasive group A streptococcal (iGAS) infections caused by the M1UK sublineage did not significantly differ from other emm1 lineages. Rapid progression to death highlights the urgent need for faster diagnostics and interventions for iGAS disease.
Area of Science:
- Infectious Diseases
- Microbiology
- Epidemiology
Background:
- The M1UK sublineage of Streptococcus pyogenes is linked to increased invasive group A streptococcal (iGAS) disease.
- Recent surges in iGAS necessitate understanding the impact of specific emm1 sublineages on patient outcomes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the case fatality rate (CFR) of emm1 iGAS in England and Wales.
- To compare patient outcomes between the M1UK sublineage and ancestral emm1 lineages.
Main Methods:
- Linked emm1 iGAS cases (2009-2022) with mortality records.
- Determined lineage using whole-genome sequencing or PCR for isolates from 2010, 2013-2016, and 2020.
- Estimated 7- and 30-day CFRs and used statistical models to assess lineage-associated mortality risk.
Main Results:
- Among 1356 emm1 iGAS cases with assigned lineage, 30-day CFRs varied: M1UK (24.4%), M1global (22.3%), M123SNP (10.5%), M113SNP (10.3%).
- Lineage was not a significant predictor of mortality after adjusting for age and sex.
- Rapid progression to death was observed, with over 63% of deaths occurring within 1 day of diagnostic sampling, particularly in children.
Conclusions:
- No significant difference in mortality was found between M1UK and M1global lineages.
- Overall mortality from emm1 Streptococcus pyogenes remains high.
- The rapid time to death emphasizes the need for rapid diagnostics and preventive strategies for iGAS.
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