Mobilizing capital and technology for a clean aviation industry
David G Victor1,2,3, Thomas Conlon4, Philipp Goedeking5
1School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|October 16, 2025
Summary
Research managers and investors require improved methods for evaluating the risks and rewards of scalable, transformational technologies. This study explores novel approaches to technology assessment for better decision-making.
Area of Science:
- Technology Management
- Innovation Economics
Background:
- Scalable and transformational technologies present unique challenges in risk-benefit analysis.
- Current assessment frameworks may not adequately capture the complexities of emerging technologies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and propose enhanced methodologies for evaluating the risks and potential benefits of scalable, transformational technologies.
- To aid research managers and investors in making more informed decisions regarding technology adoption and investment.
Main Methods:
- Review of existing technology assessment frameworks.
- Analysis of case studies involving scalable, transformational technologies.
- Development of a multi-criteria decision analysis model.
Main Results:
- Identified limitations in traditional risk-benefit analysis for emerging technologies.
- Proposed a novel framework incorporating dynamic risk assessment and benefit forecasting.
- Demonstrated the applicability of the framework through simulated investment scenarios.
Conclusions:
- Enhanced approaches are crucial for accurately assessing the potential of scalable, transformational technologies.
- The proposed framework offers a more robust method for decision-making in technology investment.
- Improved assessment tools can lead to more effective allocation of resources for innovation.
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