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Backtracking metabolic dynamics in single cells predicts bacterial replication in human macrophages
Mariatou Dramé1, Francisco-Javier Garcia-Rodriguez1, Dmitry Ershov2,3
1Institut Pasteur, Université Paris Cité, Biologie des Bactéries Intracellulaires, Paris, France.
Nature Communications
|October 16, 2025
Summary
Predicting bacterial infection in single cells is now possible. Early changes in mitochondrial function predict Legionella pneumophila replication in macrophages with 83% accuracy, offering new insights into host-pathogen interactions.
Area of Science:
- Cellular biology
- Infectious diseases
- Computational biology
Background:
- Tracking dynamic state transitions in cellular responses is vital for predicting biological outcomes.
- Understanding host-pathogen interactions requires detailed monitoring of cellular processes during infection.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a predictive model for bacterial infection in single human macrophages.
- To identify early metabolic markers associated with distinct infection outcomes, such as bacterial replication or cell death.
Main Methods:
- Live-cell imaging of human primary macrophages infected with Legionella pneumophila.
- Parallel monitoring of infection progression and cellular metabolic parameters.
- Development of a machine-learning model to predict infection outcomes.
Main Results:
- Early alterations in mitochondrial membrane potential (Δψm) and mitochondrial Reactive Oxygen Species (mROS) production were linked to subsequent bacterial growth.
- An explainable machine-learning model achieved 83% accuracy in predicting L. pneumophila replication prior to its onset.
- Backtracking analysis provided insights into host-pathogen dynamics and identified key predictive mitochondrial markers.
Conclusions:
- Early mitochondrial changes serve as critical predictive markers for successful bacterial infection.
- Machine learning models can accurately predict infection progression in single cells.
- This approach offers valuable insights into host-pathogen interactions and cellular response heterogeneity.

