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Climate change will alter the distribution of soft scale insects, key vectors for Grapevine leafroll-associated virus 3 (GLRaV-3). This impacts future grapevine disease risk and management strategies globally.

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Area of Science:

  • Plant Pathology
  • Entomology
  • Climate Change Ecology

Background:

  • Grapevine leafroll-associated virus 3 (GLRaV-3) causes significant economic losses in viticulture worldwide.
  • Soft scale insects (Coccidae) are primary vectors for GLRaV-3, making their distribution critical for disease management.
  • Limited research exists on climate change impacts on soft scale vectors of GLRaV-3.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To predict the future global distribution of seven soft scale species that transmit GLRaV-3.
  • To assess the influence of climate change scenarios on vector distribution and potential GLRaV-3 transmission risk.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized the MaxEnt model to analyze potential species distribution.
  • Compiled occurrence data from global biodiversity databases.
  • Incorporated environmental variables and climate projections (SSPs) for multiple future timeframes.

Main Results:

  • Temperature was identified as a key limiting factor for soft scale distribution.
  • A northward shift in distribution is projected for several soft scale species under climate change.
  • Three species are predicted to expand their ranges, while four may experience habitat reduction.

Conclusions:

  • Climate change is expected to alter GLRaV-3 vector distribution, impacting transmission risk in grapevine regions.
  • Findings provide crucial insights for targeted surveillance and proactive management of grapevine diseases.
  • This study supports adaptive strategies for viticulture in response to changing climatic conditions.