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Goodbye Norway: Top-Earners Selection Into Return and Onward Migration.
Amelie F Constant1, Astri Syse2, Marianne Tønnessen3
1Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA; CESifo, Munich, Germany, United Nations University‒MERIT, Maastricht, the Netherlands; Global Labor Organization, Bonn, Germany.
Demography
|October 17, 2025
Summary
First-generation immigrants exhibit significant selection based on characteristics like gender, education, and earnings, influencing their return, onward migration, or staying decisions. These patterns offer new insights into immigrant sorting and self-selection processes.
Area of Science:
- Sociology
- Economics
- Demography
Background:
- Understanding immigrant behavior is crucial for policy and integration.
- Previous studies often lack detailed data on immigrant exit statuses.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze selection mechanisms of first-generation labor immigrants in Norway.
- To differentiate between returnees, onward migrants, and stayers.
- To understand self-selection processes influencing migration decisions.
Main Methods:
- Utilized high-quality, population-wide Norwegian panel data (2000-2020).
- Employed official data on immigrant status at arrival and exit.
- Disaggregated immigrants into returnees, onward migrants, and stayers.
Main Results:
- Significant selection observed across characteristics (gender, education, earnings).
- Women are more migratory; employed individuals less so.
- Highest educated and those with no/high earnings show distinct migration patterns (U-shaped effect).
- Nordic immigrants tend to return; non-Europeans move onward.
Conclusions:
- Immigrant selection is complex and varies by migration outcome.
- Findings challenge traditional labor migration theories.
- Highlights the importance of detailed status-at-arrival and destination-upon-exit data.
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