Analysis on spatial pattern evolution and policy of CO₂ emissions from economic sectors in China from 2005 to 2020

Using ArcGIS spatial analysis and trend prediction methods, this study examines the spatiotemporal evolution patterns, trends, and policy responses of CO₂ emissions across economic sectors in China. As a core component of the national carbon reduction strategy, this research aims to provide a scientific reference for formulating China's "Dual Carbon" policy goals. The main findings are as follows: (1) China's CO₂ emissions exhibit a characteristic inverse relationship between total emission volume and regional growth rate-regions with lower total emissions tend to experience higher growth rates. In recent years, the service and transportation sectors have gradually emerged as new major sources of CO₂ emissions. (2) The growth of total CO₂ emissions from economic sectors shows a nationwide diffusive trend. Specifically, industrial CO₂ growth trends westward, agricultural emissions shift southward, the service sector expands southwestward, transportation emissions move eastward, and household emissions diffuse across the country. (3) CO₂ emissions are significantly correlated with urban economic development level, energy structure, industrial production intensity, and policy implementation. Moreover, the effectiveness of local government oversight directly influences the outcomes of emission control policies.