Using discarded packs collection to estimate illicit trade in Colombia

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Economics
• Criminology

Background:

• Colombia's last tobacco tax increase was in 2017, leading to a decreased tax burden on major brands.
• Significant political and contextual changes have occurred in Colombia since the last tax adjustment.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate the prevalence of illicit cigarette trade in five major Colombian cities.
• To analyze factors contributing to illicit cigarette trade beyond taxation.

Main Methods:

• A two-stage weighted probabilistic sampling approach using litter-pack methodology was employed in five cities.
• Smoking rates were estimated using survey and census data, with logistic regression applied.
• Analysis included brand, health warnings, and country of origin for legal and illicit cigarette packs.

Main Results:

• Illicit cigarette trade constituted 16.9% of total consumption across the studied cities.
• Prevalence varied widely, from 6.6% in Bogotá to 73.7% in Cúcuta.
• Over 50% of illicit packs lacked country-of-origin information, with inconsistencies noted for popular brands.

Conclusions:

• Illicit trade penetration is not solely explained by common factors like taxes, contrary to industry assertions.
• Variations in illicit trade suggest that security and political factors play a decisive role.
• Further research into non-tax variables is warranted to understand illicit cigarette trade dynamics.