Using discarded packs collection to estimate illicit trade in Colombia

The last time tobacco taxes increased in Colombia was in 2017. After this increase, the tax burden on the most-sold brand has decreased. In the meantime, Colombia has undergone significant changes in its political context.

This study employed a litter-pack methodology in Colombia to estimate the prevalence of illicit cigarette trade in five cities (Bogotá, Medellín, Cali, Cartagena, and Cúcuta), which represent 37 % of the total urban population and 56.1 % of the urban smoking population in the country. A weighted probabilistic sampling approach with two stages was utilised. Smoking rates for each city in census areas were estimated using data from the 2019 National Substance Use Survey and the 2018 Census, applying logistic regression. Census areas were grouped by the density of people who smoke tobacco, and random starting points were selected. Structured analyses identified key attributes of cigarette packs for both legal and illicit products, including brand, health warnings, and origin.

Illicit trade accounted for 16.9 % of total cigarette consumption across the five cities. Levels varied significantly, ranging from 6.6 % in Bogotá to 73.7 % in Cúcuta (on the border with Venezuela). Over half of the illicit cigarette packs lacked country-of-origin information, with leading brands, like Rumba or Carnival, often displaying inconsistent or missing country details.

Contrary to industry claims, the variations in illicit trade penetration across cities suggest that common factors, such as taxes, cannot fully account for the growth of illicit trade. Other variables, such as security and political issues, may decisively affect such a penetration.